Why Yangon’s Old High-Rises Are Earthquake Time Bombs
Published on Mar 27, 2017 AT MyanmarTimes Newspaper
Written by Tin (Rubynar) Yadanar Tun
As earthquake frequency rises across Myanmar, experts are sounding a sharp alarm for Yangon.
While the city modernizes, a legacy of poorly constructed, aging high-rises poses a significant threat to public safety.
Seismologists warn that it is no longer a matter of if a major quake will strike, but when—and the city may not be ready.
A City on the Edge
Although predicting the exact timing of an earthquake remains scientifically impossible, Yangon’s geography puts it at high risk. The city sits just 35 kilometers from the Sagaing Fault, a 1,000-kilometer-long tectonic line capable of generating massive tremors.
The "side effects" of a quake—specifically building collapses—are expected to be more lethal in Yangon than the tremors themselves. Thousands of "low-class" high-rises, built with substandard materials and aging infrastructure, house a dense population that would be trapped if these structures failed.
The 100-Year Cycle
U Myo Thant, Vice President of the Myanmar Earthquake Committee (MEC), notes that seismic activity has spiked since 2010. Recent events, such as the 5.8-magnitude quake centered in Taikkyi on March 13, 2017, caused visible cracking in several city buildings, sparking panic among residents.
History suggests a grim timeline. "The last major earthquake over 7.0 magnitude on the Sagaing Fault occurred in 1930," U Myo Thant explained. "These major events typically follow a 100-year cycle. We are now entering the window where a massive quake from the Sagaing Fault is a very real worry."
In 1930, when Yangon was largely comprised of low-rise wooden structures, 50 people died in the city. Experts fear that with today’s dense, vertical urban landscape, a similar event would be exponentially more catastrophic.
The "Contract Building" Crisis
The disparity between old and new construction is stark. According to U Yan Aung, Managing Director of Asia Construction, building quality in Yangon underwent a shift after 2010.
Post-2010: The Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC) began enforcing stricter codes, inspecting foundations, and requiring earthquake-resistant designs.
Pre-2010: During the era of the military government, many "contract buildings" were erected without proper oversight. These structures often lack the necessary space between them—sometimes failing to leave even a six-inch gap—creating a "domino effect" risk where one falling building could take down an entire block.
"Most buildings built before 2000 lack quality and have many structural weaknesses," U Yan Aung warned. "If a quake over 6.0 magnitude hits, these poor-quality buildings will likely collapse."
A Call to Action
Despite the warnings, the public response has been sluggish. U Saw Htway Zaw, Secretary of the MEC, revealed that despite the recent Taikkyi quake, no residents from older high-rises have come forward to request structural integrity checks.
Currently, the MEC—supported by UN-Habitat—is focusing on public safety by assessing 50 critical sites, including Yangon General Hospital and various government schools. Once reviewed, reports will be sent to the relevant ministries for urgent reinforcement.
How to Survive
Seismologist Daw Hla Hla Aung, a patron of the MEC, suggests that if residents cannot afford to retrofit an entire building, they should at least designate and reinforce a "safe room" within their units.
However, U Yan Aung argues that the government must take a firmer hand. "By law, the YCDC has the power to demolish buildings that have exceeded their lifespan and pose a danger to the public. They haven't used this power yet. Right now, people feel 'cool' because a big one hasn't hit recently—but if it does, these unsafe buildings will fall."
As the pressure builds along the Sagaing Fault, Yangon sits in a "Fair Damage Zone" (Zone 2B). For the residents of the city’s older districts, the clock is ticking.